Since the end of 2025, the global commodity market has undergone structural adjustments, with copper prices leading the way in a sustained high trend. Data shows that the spot price of electrolytic copper in China has fluctuated upwards after breaking through the integer threshold of 100000 yuan/ton, and has remained at around 105000 yuan/ton so far; The price of copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has broken through the historical peak of $13300 per ton, setting a record high in nearly a decade. As an indispensable core raw material in the HVAC industry, the price fluctuations of copper directly affect the cost nerves and business rhythm of the entire industry chain. Represented by Shanghai Aike Air Conditioning Equipment Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Shanghai Aike"), domestic HVAC equipment manufacturing enterprises are at the forefront of market fluctuations, facing both cost pressures caused by rising raw material prices and actively exploring transformation paths that adapt to the new normal of the industry. This article will combine the current development status of the industry with the practical experience of Shanghai Aike, briefly analyze the core relationship between copper and the HVAC industry, the core reasons for the current copper price rise, and the response strategies and development directions at the enterprise level.
1, Copper: the "core cornerstone" of HVAC equipment
In the field of HVAC equipment manufacturing, copper has become the preferred material for various core components due to its excellent thermal conductivity, corrosion resistance, ductility, and antibacterial properties, and can be regarded as the "core cornerstone" of HVAC equipment. From the perspective of application scenarios, whether it is household air conditioning, commercial central air conditioning, industrial heating equipment, refrigeration units, their core heat exchange components (condenser, evaporator), connecting pipelines, control valves and other key links cannot do without the support of copper materials. From the perspective of usage and cost ratio, the copper consumption of a single household split air conditioner is about 6-8 kilograms, while the copper consumption of high-end commercial central air conditioners can exceed 11 kilograms; In the cost structure, copper materials generally account for 20% -33% of the total raw material cost of HVAC equipment. Some high-end customized models require higher heat exchange efficiency and service life, and the cost of copper materials even exceeds 40%. For Shanghai Aike, this feature is even more significant. As a company specializing in the research and manufacturing of air conditioning units, fan coil units, fresh air ventilators, and floor convection fans, its core products are widely used in commercial buildings, residential buildings, industrial plants, and other fields. These scenarios have strict requirements for the heat transfer efficiency, operational stability, and energy conservation and environmental protection of the equipment, and the realization of these performances highly relies on the high-quality characteristics of copper materials. Therefore, the proportion of copper materials used in the products is higher. According to statistics, the copper cost of Shanghai Aike's core products accounts for 25% -38%, far exceeding the industry average. Every small fluctuation in copper prices will directly transmit to production costs, and have a direct impact on the company's pricing strategy, profit margins, and business decisions.
2, The core driving factors behind high copper prices
The sustained high operation of copper prices in this round is not driven by a single factor, but the result of multiple factors such as global supply-demand mismatch, macroeconomic policy adjustments, and industrial transformation needs. The core logic can be summarized as a supply-demand imbalance of "tight supply constraints+high demand growth". From the supply side, the global copper mining capacity shows a clear tight constraint trend. As the world's major copper producing countries, countries such as Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of Congo have been frequently affected by mining accidents, policy changes, and other force majeure events in recent years. In September 2025, the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia announced a production interruption due to a severe mudslide accident, which is expected to reduce copper supply by 500000 tons for the whole year, accounting for 2% of the world's total production; Due to resource depletion, some old mines in Chile have experienced a decline in production capacity, while tightening environmental policies have further restricted the release of new production capacity. These factors directly led to a slowdown in the growth rate of global copper mine production, and even a temporary negative growth, laying the foundation for the rise in copper prices. From the demand side, the resilient recovery of traditional demand and the explosive growth of emerging demand form a synergistic effect. In traditional fields, the demand for upgrading industrial HVAC equipment and installing supporting air conditioning in commercial buildings remains stable; In emerging fields, the rapid development of industries such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic power stations, and AI data centers has given rise to massive demand for copper - the copper consumption of each new energy vehicle is 4-5 times that of traditional fuel vehicles, the copper consumption of each megawatt photovoltaic project is 4-5 tons, and the copper consumption of AI data centers is more than twice that of traditional data centers. In addition, at the macro level, the Federal Reserve has entered a cycle of interest rate cuts and ended its balance sheet reduction plan, leading to a sustained weakening of the US dollar index and a large influx of international capital into the industrial metal market with financial attributes, further amplifying the upward trend of copper prices.
3, The core impact on the HVAC industry
The sustained high operation of copper prices has brought comprehensive impacts to the HVAC industry, with the core impact concentrated on two levels. Firstly, the sudden increase in cost pressure has severely squeezed the profit margins of enterprises. According to current copper prices, for every 10000 yuan/ton increase in copper prices, the production cost of a single ordinary air conditioner will increase by 50-100 yuan, and the cost increase of high-end commercial models will exceed 150 yuan. The simultaneous increase in prices of other raw materials such as aluminum, refrigerants, and steel has put unprecedented cost pressure on HVAC enterprises. However, in the terminal market, due to fierce competition, it is difficult for enterprises to transfer all cost pressures to product prices, resulting in a decline in the overall profit margin of the industry. Small and medium-sized enterprises, due to weak financial strength and poor bargaining power, bear more prominent pressure, and some even experience capacity contraction. Secondly, the stability of the supply chain is being challenged, and industry differentiation is intensifying. In the context of tight supply of raw materials, top enterprises can leverage their scale advantages to sign long-term procurement agreements with upstream suppliers, lock in raw material prices and supply quantities, and even hedge price volatility risks through financial instruments such as futures hedging; However, small and medium-sized enterprises are in a passive position in market competition due to their small procurement volume and limited funds, making it difficult to obtain stable raw material supply. Faced with this situation, Shanghai Aike, with years of industry accumulation, has proactively laid out supply chain management, established long-term strategic partnerships with mainstream copper suppliers in China, and locked in the procurement volume and prices of some core raw materials in advance; At the same time, the enterprise has established a dynamic inventory management mechanism, adjusted the pace of raw material procurement based on order conditions, effectively reduced the supply chain risks caused by short-term surges in copper prices, and ensured the stability of production and operation.
4, Industry and Shanghai Aike's response path
Faced with the new normal of high copper prices in the industry, the HVAC industry is accelerating its transformation from scale expansion to high-quality development. Shanghai Aike is also implementing three major response paths in conjunction with its own business characteristics. Firstly, deeply cultivate core technological innovation and optimize the efficiency of copper material application. Shanghai Aike focuses on the process upgrade of core products, optimizing the internal structural design of air conditioning units and fan coil units through research and development, and improving the energy efficiency utilization of copper heat exchange components. On the basis of adhering to high-quality copper materials to ensure product performance, it maximizes the value of copper materials and achieves cost reduction and efficiency improvement from a technical perspective. Secondly, optimize the supply chain system and enhance the ability to resist risks. In addition to establishing long-term cooperation with upstream suppliers, Shanghai Aike actively promotes industrial chain collaboration. On the one hand, it shares production plan information with suppliers to help them optimize production capacity allocation and ensure stable supply of raw materials; On the other hand, maintain close communication with downstream customers, adjust product development direction based on market demand, and jointly digest cost pressure. In addition, companies also moderately use financial instruments to hedge price risks and further enhance the stability of the supply chain. Thirdly, promote product upgrades and enhance added value. In order to get rid of excessive dependence on raw material costs, Shanghai Aike focuses on the research and development of high value-added products, increasing investment in intelligent air conditioning units, high-efficiency energy-saving fan coil units, silent fresh air ventilators and other products. By improving the energy efficiency level, intelligence and customized service capabilities of the products, the market competitiveness and premium ability of the products are enhanced, and the transformation from "cost driven" to "value driven" is achieved.
Conclusion
From the perspective of industry development trends, the high operation of copper prices is not a short-term phenomenon, but a long-term new normal under the background of global resource restructuring and industrial transformation. For the HVAC industry, this situation is not only a challenge, but also an important opportunity to promote industry transformation and upgrading - it forces the industry to break the development model that relied on scale expansion and low-cost competition in the past, and turn to a high-quality development path of technological innovation, supply chain optimization, and value enhancement. For Shanghai Aike, with its technological accumulation in core product areas such as air conditioning units and fan coil units, as well as its active layout in supply chain management and product upgrades, the company has the core ability to cope with market fluctuations. In the future, Shanghai Aike will continue to deepen its core business areas, driven by technological innovation and guaranteed by a stable and efficient supply chain system. It will continue to promote product upgrades and service optimization, further consolidate its market position in the wave of industry transformation, and achieve coordinated development between the enterprise and the industry. For the entire HVAC industry, only by actively adapting to market changes, focusing on core technology research and development, and enhancing industry chain collaboration capabilities, can we break through under cost pressure and move towards a new stage of more efficient and sustainable development.